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Airbus is Flying Through Turbulance

The major media coverage over the last weeks regarding the Airbus share price brings into question the whole art of what we now call 'spin' and its effect on Wall Street, The City and other world markets. This is entirely separate from the real situation regarding one of the world's major aircraft manufacturers.

That Airbus was having problems with the A380 and defining their next major step forward, the A330 replacement, initially called A350 and now rumored to be A370, is no secret within the industry, and indeed to the media. Whilst worries over future wing production in the UK have to be a major concern regarding the decision of BAE Systems to take the option in disposing of its Airbus investment, nobody argued that the timing was wrong. The A320 series is still selling strongly (although some have suggested big discounts and alleged service problems), the A400M is on schedule and looks like doing well, and the A380 has a full order book (only one cancellation, so far) for the next few years, there are clouds on the horizon.

Our real question is why it has taken so long for the various Stock Exchanges to find out about these A380 and A330/A340 problems. They have taken on face value news of flight control system problems (which are probably true but must have been known ages ago when it was confirmed that the aircraft would not meet publicized schedules). Senior EADS executives have been accused of selling their shares due to insider knowledge, a difficult one to pin on them, in truth the facts hardly a secret.

All this begs the inquiry. Are the so-called analysts up to the job? There is no doubt that some are very good, know their way around, and are excellent value. But one must ask just why so few knew what was really going on.

Companies these days spend a fortune on keeping the city gurus up to date and happy. But is this money well spent and are these so-called experts more focussed on their financial arrangements than with coming up with the obvious? In the US some of it has been shown to be a sham. In most respects what happens in North America happens here too, at a later date. Is this revision about to take place in the UK?

In the past we relied on expert media to keep us informed. Yes they were subjected to PR skills, but in the main most were trained journalists; inquisitive, demanding and first rate with their productions. The era of Donne (FT), Robson (Express), Cooper (Telegraph) and Harvey Elliott (The Times) seems to have gone. No longer, for the most part, do the Nationals employ aviation correspondents who know their area, and are real experts with their written words and pronouncements. It's the analyst that call the tune and now lead the way, British Airways, for instance holding a total day for their benevolence, keeping both the specialist and consumer media away, each essential to the business in different ways.

Do the listed companies need to rethink? Should the hard information be coming from their outside (and often poorly informed) consultants, or directly in-house, where at least those involved both know the truth and the product.

The A380 is now expected to delivered to Singapore Airlines in December, an excellent first customer, conservative (it will not rush the 'plane into service) with an impressive track record. It will surely prove to be a popular aircraft but Airbus will have to work in the area of business travel and consumer relations in backing up their customers, perhaps more than originally considered.

Heathrow will be the real focus with at least six airlines using LHR as their Airbus initial destination. Airbus will have to focus on London rather than Toulouse. Will President Chirac join Prime Minister Blair in welcoming the first ever scheduled flight from Singapore?

During the last week the shares of majority owner EADS initially crashed nearly one-third, opening up a hornet's nest of questions that need to be answered with the first one simply, "What is the true value of the company?" Boeing may be glowing at the moment but it was not that long ago that they too had an unfriendly spotlight upon them. Things can change around very quickly. Seattle should not gloat. It needs to be careful too and focus on the job in hand.

M. Ginsberg, ABTN

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