Airbus is Flying
Through Turbulance
The major media coverage over the last weeks regarding
the Airbus share price brings into question the whole art
of what we now call 'spin' and its effect on Wall Street,
The City and other world markets. This is entirely
separate from the real situation regarding one of the
world's major aircraft manufacturers.
That Airbus was having
problems with the A380 and defining their next major step
forward, the A330 replacement, initially called A350 and
now rumored to be A370, is no secret within the industry,
and indeed to the media. Whilst worries over future wing
production in the UK have to be a major concern regarding
the decision of BAE Systems to take the option in
disposing of its Airbus investment, nobody argued that
the timing was wrong. The A320 series is still selling
strongly (although some have suggested big discounts and
alleged service problems), the A400M is on schedule and
looks like doing well, and the A380 has a full order book
(only one cancellation, so far) for the next few years,
there are clouds on the horizon.
Our real question is why
it has taken so long for the various Stock Exchanges to
find out about these A380 and A330/A340 problems. They
have taken on face value news of flight control system
problems (which are probably true but must have been
known ages ago when it was confirmed that the aircraft
would not meet publicized schedules). Senior EADS
executives have been accused of selling their shares due
to insider knowledge, a difficult one to pin on them, in
truth the facts hardly a secret.
All this begs the
inquiry. Are the so-called analysts up to the job? There
is no doubt that some are very good, know their way
around, and are excellent value. But one must ask just
why so few knew what was really going on.
Companies these days
spend a fortune on keeping the city gurus up to date and
happy. But is this money well spent and are these
so-called experts more focussed on their financial
arrangements than with coming up with the obvious? In the
US some of it has been shown to be a sham. In most
respects what happens in North America happens here too,
at a later date. Is this revision about to take place in
the UK?
In the past we relied on
expert media to keep us informed. Yes they were subjected
to PR skills, but in the main most were trained
journalists; inquisitive, demanding and first rate with
their productions. The era of Donne (FT), Robson
(Express), Cooper (Telegraph) and Harvey Elliott (The
Times) seems to have gone. No longer, for the most part,
do the Nationals employ aviation correspondents who know
their area, and are real experts with their written words
and pronouncements. It's the analyst that call the tune
and now lead the way, British Airways, for instance
holding a total day for their benevolence, keeping both
the specialist and consumer media away, each essential to
the business in different ways.
Do the listed companies
need to rethink? Should the hard information be coming
from their outside (and often poorly informed)
consultants, or directly in-house, where at least those
involved both know the truth and the product.
The A380 is now expected
to delivered to Singapore Airlines in December, an
excellent first customer, conservative (it will not rush
the 'plane into service) with an impressive track record.
It will surely prove to be a popular aircraft but Airbus
will have to work in the area of business travel and
consumer relations in backing up their customers, perhaps
more than originally considered.
Heathrow will be the real focus with at least six
airlines using LHR as their Airbus initial destination.
Airbus will have to focus on London rather than Toulouse.
Will President Chirac join Prime Minister Blair in
welcoming the first ever scheduled flight from
Singapore?
During the last week the
shares of majority owner EADS initially crashed nearly
one-third, opening up a hornet's nest of questions that
need to be answered with the first one simply, "What is
the true value of the company?" Boeing may be glowing at
the moment but it was not that long ago that they too had
an unfriendly spotlight upon them. Things can change
around very quickly. Seattle should not gloat. It needs
to be careful too and focus on the job in hand.
M. Ginsberg, ABTN