INSIDE AIR TRAVEL
The Boeing 747 is Almost Fourty, Does it Have a future?Who would have thought on September 2, 1968 when the first ever Boeing 747-100 rolled out of the then new Boeing facility at Paine Field Everett (also called Snohomish &endash; not many people know that), near Seattle, that the aircraft would for sure be in production 40 years later. Its great and much feared contemporary Concorde, they both first flew in 1969, has gone to the great hangar in the sky, but the Boeing Jumbo continues on and on. To date an astonishing 1,433 have been ordered, somewhat more than the original Boeing prediction of just 400. As of the end of June 2006, 61 aircraft remain to be completed and if not a further single order is taken that will still keep the assembly line busy for five years assuming current deliveries of about one a month are continued.
Why is the 747 so successful? The short answer is that it makes money for airlines. But as any regular (business class) traveler will tell you the Boeing jumbo cannot be beaten for long distance air travel, providing one is able to outfox your fellow travelers and grab an upstairs seat. With the window accommodation featuring large floor level box bins, and the additional flat surfaces they provide, there is a real sense of spaciousness and comfort. It's quiet too. Depending on the airline and layout there are also never going to be much more than 40 others in the area, often considerably less (with BA it is now 20). Even downstairs the aircraft is extremely comfortable its width of great benefit, eight abreast with Club World. Virgin Atlantic includes a bar. Ten abreast in economy is now the norm, although some have tried to squeeze 12 across the width. The Airbus A380 is going to have to be very good to beat this and the thought of up to 100 extra passengers, that is 25% more, attempting to get through security and immigration is worrying. 800+ passengers at a time is mind-boggling.
The current production model of the 747, the Dash 400, was first introduced as long ago as 1989. If an airline wanted a big aircraft there was no choice. Boeing from time to time produced paper developments. And then Airbus flew the A380, a proper contender for Queen of the Sky. Suddenly Boeing woke up.
Thus the 747-8 was born, a real airplane that will actually fly. To date there has been just one single order of the passenger version, to an undisclosed Middle East airline, and 18 commitments for the freighter variant. Boeing naturally says that the economics of 747-8 Intercontinental makes for a far better financial package than the mighty Airbus, but it is going to be a brave CEO who dictates to his marketing managers that they can't have the latest and greatest but must take on more of an established winner. Do you go for style and prestige, or for the same which you know works?
What is clear is that the 747-8 Intercontinental is the only aircraft in the 400-500-seat market, stretched 3.6 m (11.7 ft) from the 747-400 to provide 450 seats in a three-class configuration and a 14,815-km (8,000-nmi) range. Using 787 Dreamliner technology engines and other developments currently unique to that machine, the airplane will be quieter, produce lower emissions, and achieve better fuel economy than its predecessor proving equivalent trip costs and 9% lower seat-mile costs than the 747-400, plus 21% greater cargo volume. Operating economics will offer a significant improvement over the A380. Boeing claims that the 747-8 is more than 12% lighter per seat than the A380 and will consume 11% less fuel per passenger than the Toulouse giant. Both the 747-8 Intercontinental and 747-8 Freighter can use the existing infrastructure and ground equipment at most airports worldwide. Filling an extra 100-seats all year round will never be that easy for A380 operators. As things stand the first flight is set for the fourth quarter 2008 with certification and entry into service &endash; September 2009.
Where Boeing really does look like they have a winner is the new SkyLoft area in the rear upper deck of the 747-8 Intercontinental giving operators the chance to create something special through personal suites, a dining area/lounge or a business center. How Boeing has been able to develop this area without major structural alterations is remarkable. True the Pan Am Boeing 314 of 1938 also had bunks but not of the style provisionally laid out in the Boeing future concept center near Everett (officially the Boeing Payloads Concept Center &endash; payload being what the aircraft carries rather than cargo). An airborne shower could also be incorporated in the aircraft, the latest idea being a condensed spray contained in a single one-liter bottle. A proper shower uses too much water. New ultra modern toilets too.
Farnborough is just two weeks away. Are there to be commitment announcements for the Dash 8 variant in passenger form? Will the 747 go past the 1,450 mark and perhaps reach out towards 1,500 units? The A380 order book stands at a very questionable 159? Competition may have spawned yet another Boeing success story with the 747-8. Yet there has to be room for both. http://www.boeing.com
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