INSIDE AIR TRAVEL
Boeing Sees Fuel Costs Driving Demand for More Aircraft Through the Next Two Decades
Boeing has upped its 20-year forecast of world jet transport demand in its latest Current Market Outlook, released yesterday. The manufacturer now sees a requirement for 27,200 new aircraft valued at more than $2.6 trillion through 2025. Last year it projected a need for 25,700 aircraft worth $2.1 trillion.
The increase in deliveries compared to the 2005 CMO largely is attributable to today's high fuel prices coupled with the introduction of "new, very efficient, very capable aircraft," which will force older airplanes from the fleet sooner than might otherwise have occurred, Boeing said. Replacement aircraft will represent an estimated 35% of deliveries, or 9,600 units, over the two decades, an increase of about 1,400 compared to last year's forecast.
Passenger traffic (RPKs) is forecast to grow at 4.9% annually over the period, a slight rise from the 4.8% average annual growth rate for the 1985-2005 period. Traffic growth will create a demand for 17,300 new airplanes.
Compared to last year, Boeing raised its forecast for 400-seat and larger jets from 900 to 990, although it sees only 325 in the A380 size category, while demand for regional jets of 90 seats and below is now seen at 3,450 units compared to 3,900 in 2005. Single-aisle aircraft seating 100-240 will represent 61% of the delivery pool over the 20-year period at 16,540 units. Twin-aisle aircraft seating 200-400 will account for 6,230 deliveries.
Airlines in North America will absorb the most aircraft, 9,490, followed by Asia/Pacific carriers with 7,900 and Europe with 6,600. However, in terms of value Asia leads, with its aircraft worth $930 billion followed by North America at $740 billion and Europe at $620 billion. Middle East airlines will acquire 1,110 aircraft valued at $160 billion, Latin American carriers will take 1,680 units worth $110 billion and Africa will get 430 valued at $40 billion.
Cargo traffic will rise at a rate of 6.1% per year, according to the forecast. The freighter fleet will double from 1,790 units today to 3,560 in 2025, accompanied by a shift toward widebody freighters. With 1,200 retirements, around 3,000 freighters will be added. Most of these will be converted from passenger and combi aircraft, with 770 new production aircraft, Boeing said.
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